Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
Of those who replied, 40.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 25 to August 29 among 1404 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Reuters poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.0 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.