Latest Big-issue index model: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie
The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, one should consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.2%. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.9 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.