Latest 538 (polls-plus) model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.7% for Clinton, and 48.3% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.