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Latest 538 (polls-plus) model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied


The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.7% for Clinton, and 48.3% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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