Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton and Trump will each gain 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.5 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.7 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.