Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.2%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the recommended strategy use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results vs. other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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