Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issue-index model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.6% for Clinton, and 43.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual index model. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.2%. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.

The Issue-index model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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