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Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

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The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fiscal model model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 4.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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