Fair model: Clinton trails by a clear margin

The Fair model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.4%. This value is 5.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fair model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 8.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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