DeSart model: Clinton tied with Trump

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton and Trump will each gain 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% and Trump 47.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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