Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 48.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to August 29. A total of 402 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.