FOX released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
FOX poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% plan to cast a ballot for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from August 28 to August 30 among 1011 participants. The error margin is +/-3.0 points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.1%. Compared to numbers in the FOX poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.