Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results vs. other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.4%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Time-for-change model.
The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.