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Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Time-for-change model


The Time-for-change model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.4%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Time-for-change model.

The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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