Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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