Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Lockerbie model
The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.