Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Convention bump model
The Convention bump model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.8%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. Relative to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.