Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Convention bump model

The Convention bump model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.8%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. Relative to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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