Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new 538 (polls-plus) model
The 538 (polls-plus) model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.7% for Clinton, and 48.3% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.