Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new 538 (polls-plus) model

The 538 (polls-plus) model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.7% for Clinton, and 48.3% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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