Trial-heat model: Clinton is in the lead

The Trial-heat model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. Relative to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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