The Trial-heat model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. Relative to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.