Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.4%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Time-for-change model.
The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.