Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Vox.Com model
The Vox.Com model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 49.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 50.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.4%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Vox.Com model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.