Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Vox.Com model

The Vox.Com model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 49.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.4%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Vox.Com model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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