Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.