Primary model: Trump is in the lead

The Primary model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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