PPP poll: Clinton with 5 points lead
By Results of a new national poll carried out by PPP were published. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
PPP poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 26 to August 28 with 881 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.3%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the PPP poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.
