Franklin & Marshall published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 25 to August 29 among 496 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-5.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.