EmersonEmerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
EmersonEmerson poll results
According to the results, former New York Senator Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump have identical levels of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from August 25 to August 27, among a random sample of 800 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.0%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.9% and Trump 48.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.9 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.