Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 21 with 402 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is negligible.