Leading indicators model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Leading indicators model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. In comparison to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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