IBD published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
IBD poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 26 to September 1, among a random sample of 861 participants. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.3%. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the IBD poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.3 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.