Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump obtaining 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.5 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
The Jérôme & Jérôme model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% and Trump 47.0% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.9 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.