Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead
The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be regarded with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.