Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin

The Issue-index model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 56.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 43.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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