Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead

The Fiscal model model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.4%. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fiscal model model.

The Fiscal model model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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