The Fair model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 56.0%.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.6 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.