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Fair model: Trump with clear lead


The Fair model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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