DeSart model: Clinton tied with Trump
The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump obtaining 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% and Trump 47.0% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.2 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.