Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.