Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, because they can contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.6%. Relative to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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