Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Keys to the White House index model
The Keys to the White House model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain large biases. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 54.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.7 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.