CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% will give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 30 to September 2 among 1091 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.9% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.