Clinton in the lead, according to latest PollyVote forecast
The combined PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Looking at the components
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.4%.
Expectation polls predict a vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.6% of the vote.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 13.6 percentage points.
With 54.2% in index models the vote share for the Democrats is particularly low in comparison to previous election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.2% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.