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Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Electoral-cycle model


The Electoral-cycle model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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