The Electoral-cycle model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.