Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Convention bump model

The Convention bump model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Convention bump model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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