Results of a new poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 17 to August 19 among 997 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio sees Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.