Bio-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Bio-index model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 59.6% for Clinton, and 40.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.2%. Compared to numbers in the Bio-index index model Clinton's index model average is 5.4 percentage points worse.

The Bio-index model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 6.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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