Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in latest IBD/TIPP poll
By IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to September 1 via phone. A total of 887 participants responded. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 47.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Trump's poll average is 2.8 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.7 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.
