USA Today published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
USA Today poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 24 to August 29, among a random sample of 1000 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may contain large biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the USA Today poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.8 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.