Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new 538 (polls-plus) model

The 538 (polls-plus) model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.3%. In comparison, on September 3 Trump was predicted to garner 48.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.