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Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Convention bump model


The Convention bump model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.8%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. Compared to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Convention bump model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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