Trial-heat model: Clinton is in the lead

The Trial-heat model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Trial-heat model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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