Trial-heat model: Clinton is in the lead
The Trial-heat model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Trial-heat model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.