Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.