Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 1.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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