Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual index model. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other index models

Clinton is currently at 54.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

The Big-issue model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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