Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Morning Consult poll
Morning Consult published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Morning Consult poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 1 to September 2 via Internet. A total of 2001 participants responded. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.2 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump. In the most recent Morning Consult poll on August 29 Clinton obtained 51.8%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Trump at 47.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Morning Consult poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.9% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.3 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.