Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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